Last updated: June 2026 — Mid-season update
Current Premiership Favourites
As we pass the halfway mark of the 2026 AFL season, the premiership picture is taking shape. Here's how the leading contenders are priced across major Australian bookmakers.
Geelong Cats — $4.50
Geelong have been dominant at home and their midfield depth is outstanding. The question mark remains whether they can get it done on the road in September. Their experience in finals is a huge asset.
Brisbane Lions — $5.00
The Lions are flying at the Gabba and their forward line is the most dangerous in the competition. If they can lock in a top-two finish, they'll be extremely hard to beat.
Sydney Swans — $6.00
The Swans have been consistent but not dominant. Their defence is among the best in the league, which typically holds up in finals footy. Value at the current price if you believe they can lift in September.
Melbourne Demons — $7.50
Melbourne's best is good enough to win the flag, but their inconsistency is concerning. If they put it together in the back half of the season, $7.50 will look generous.
Collingwood Magpies — $9.00
The Pies have been competitive without being convincing. Their draw gets tougher in the run home. A smokey at best.
Western Bulldogs — $11.00
The Bulldogs have the talent to beat anyone on their day but have been frustratingly inconsistent. Worth a small each-way play if they firm for a top-four spot.
Best Value Bets
Port Adelaide ($15.00): Flying under the radar but their fixture softens in the second half. Could be dangerous if they sneak into the top four.
GWS Giants ($21.00): Talented list that hasn't clicked yet. If they find form late in the season, $21 is massive overs for a side with their finals experience.
Each-Way Premiership Betting
An each-way bet on the AFL premiership means you collect if your team wins the flag (full odds) or finishes in the top four (usually 1/4 odds). This is a popular strategy for backing longer-priced teams. For example, $10 each-way on GWS at $21 would cost $20 total but returns $52.50 if they make the top four, or $210 if they win the flag.
Premiership Betting Strategy
The key to premiership betting is identifying value early. If you believe a team is under-priced relative to their genuine chances, that's when to strike. Avoid backing short-priced favourites ($3 or under) in June — too much can change between now and September. Injuries, form slumps and fixture imbalances can derail even the best teams.
Disclaimer: Odds are indicative and subject to change. This guide is for informational purposes only. Betting involves financial risk. Only gamble with money you can afford to lose. If you need help, contact Gambling Help Online at 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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How the Top-Ten Finals System Changes the Market
The 2026 season introduced a five-week finals series featuring the top ten clubs — the first time the AFL has used a ten-team finals format. For premiership betting this is significant: a side finishing seventh or eighth now has a genuine premiership path, which historically lengthens the odds on the top two seeds and pushes value down the board. Double chances, byes and the extra sudden-death week all give mid-table teams more opportunities to build momentum into September.
In practice, the market has responded by pricing the top four more cautiously and leaving the 5th–8th bracket with generous odds. If you believe the extra finals week favours hot streaks over home-and-away consistency — and early 2026 results suggest it does — the value in the premiership market sits one tier below the favourites.
Back-to-Back History: What It Says About Brisbane
Brisbane Lions enter the 2026 finals hunt as back-to-back premiers after beating Geelong by 47 points in the 2025 Grand Final, 18.14 (122) to 11.9 (75), in front of 100,022 at the MCG. Will Ashcroft won the Norm Smith Medal and Charlie Cameron kicked four goals. It was the club's fifth premiership — but only the second time in the modern era a club has won consecutive flags (Geelong did it in 2011 after 2009's win, and Hawthorn three-peated from 2013–15).
History says the three-peat is brutally hard: Brisbane's own 2001–03 three-peat stands as the modern benchmark, and no side has matched it since. The market always prices the reigning premier short, which means the 'value' argument for backing the Lions again is weak even when the on-field case is strong. If you are backing Brisbane, do it for football reasons — not because the odds look generous, because they rarely do.
Reading the 2026 Premiership Market
Premiership markets move in waves: they firm after big wins, drift after injuries, and reshuffle entirely after the finals start. Rather than reacting to every round, decide on your position early — before the Round 18–19 market scramble — and accept that you will sit through some ugly swings. Each-way betting (win or top four) remains a sensible compromise for teams you rate strongly but not as outright favourites, though check each book's definition of the place part, which is usually the top four on the ladder.
One golden rule: never bet the premiership market with money you need back quickly, because your capital is locked up for months. Stakes should be small relative to your bankroll — 1–2% is plenty for an outright that you will hold for twenty-plus rounds. Odds change constantly, so treat any price quoted here as a starting point and check live markets before committing.