How to Win Your Footy Tipping Competition

Why Footy Tipping is Different from Betting

Footy tipping competitions are about picking winners, not finding value. The goal is to get more correct tips than everyone else in your comp. While betting rewards value, tipping rewards accuracy. This changes your approach significantly.

Tipping Strategies That Win

1. Tip the Favourites (Most of the Time)

In most tipping competitions, favourites win around 65-70% of the time. Simply tipping every favourite will get you a decent score, but it won't win your comp. You need to differentiate yourself.

2. Find 2-3 Upsets Per Season

The winner of most tipping competitions is decided by correctly picking 2-3 upsets that most others get wrong. Look for underdogs at home against overrated travelling favourites. Round 1 upsets are particularly common.

3. The "Margins" Strategy

If your comp uses margin tipping (predicting the exact margin), go with the popular consensus for most games but make bold predictions in 2-3 games per round where you have a strong opinion. This separates you from the pack without risking too much.

4. Track the Competition Leaders

Mid-season, identify who's leading your comp. Around Round 12-15, start checking their tips each week and deliberately tip differently in 1-2 matches. If they're tipping all favourites, you need to find a creative upset tip to close the gap.

Resources to Improve Your Tipping

• AFL Ladder & Form Guide: Check official AFL stats for recent form, not just ladder position
• Injury Lists: Late outs completely change game outcomes. Check Friday afternoon for team changes
• Weather Forecasts: Wet weather creates upsets. Check the forecast for every game
• Travel Factors: Interstate travel disadvantages are real, especially for Perth teams flying to Melbourne

Common Tipping Mistakes

• Tipping with your heart: Don't tip your team unless they're genuinely likely to win
• Overthinking: Sometimes the favourite wins because they're the better team
• Ignoring home ground advantage: Home teams win roughly 60% of AFL games
• Copying the crowd: Tipping the same as everyone else guarantees you won't win

Best Free Tipping Competitions 2026

• AFL Official Footy Tipping: Free to enter, prizes for top tippers
• ESPN Footy Tips: Simple interface, public and private comps available
• Work/Club Comps: Often the most fun and competitive — and bragging rights matter more than cash