Last updated: June 2026
State of Origin 2026 — Series Overview
The 2026 State of Origin series pits Queensland Maroons against New South Wales Blues in the greatest rivalry in Australian sport. With the series locked at one-all heading into previous years, 2026 promises to be another classic.
Game 1: June 3 — Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Game 2: June 17 — Optus Stadium, Perth
Game 3: July 8 — Accor Stadium, Sydney
Series Winner Odds
New South Wales Blues — $1.80
The Blues enter as favourites with a star-studded spine and strong forward pack. Nathan Cleary's availability is crucial — the Blues look a different side with him steering the ship.
Queensland Maroons — $2.00
Never count out the Maroons, especially with Game 1 at Suncorp. Queensland's ability to rally around the jersey is legendary and their forward toughness can match any NSW pack.
Origin Betting Strategy
Back the Home Side
Home ground advantage in Origin is enormous. The crowd noise, familiar surroundings and shorter travel all favour the home team. Backing the home side to win game-by-game has historically been the most profitable Origin strategy.
Watch the Weather
Origin games are often played in winter conditions. Wet weather in Sydney or Melbourne can turn the game into a forward battle, favouring the bigger pack and reducing the scoring. In wet conditions, back the underdog on the line and take unders on total points.
Man of the Match Betting
The Wally Lewis Medal (Man of the Match in the deciding game) is typically won by a halfback or lock forward. Daley Cherry-Evans and Nathan Cleary have dominated this market in recent years.
Origin Multi Suggestions
Series multi: NSW to win Game 1 + Maroons to win Game 2 (split results in Perth is common) — combined odds around $3.80.
Same Game Multi: Queensland to win Game 1 + Total points under 38.5 — Suncorp Origin games tend to be tight, low-scoring affairs.
Disclaimer: This guide is for informational purposes only. Betting involves financial risk. Only gamble with money you can afford to lose. If you need help, contact Gambling Help Online at 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
← Back to AFL Tips & Betting Guide
2026 Series Result: NSW Reclaim the Shield
The 2026 Ampol State of Origin series delivered one of the great boilovers. Queensland won Game One at Accor Stadium in Sydney on 27 May, NSW levelled the series with a win at the MCG on 17 June, and the decider at Suncorp Stadium on 8 July was a demolition: NSW won 30–12 on Queensland's home turf to take the series 2–1. Nathan Cleary was the story — two tries, five goals from five, a crucial one-on-one strip, and the Wally Lewis Medal as player of the series. The win was coach Laurie Daley's vindication after a season of criticism.
For punters the lesson is stark: the pre-series market had Queensland as clear favourites, and the money only piled on the Maroons as Game Three approached. The Blues, written off after two flat performances, delivered the most emphatic win of the series. Origin is a momentum game, and momentum can flip in a single set.
Origin Betting Lessons from the 2026 Series
Three patterns stood out across the 2026 series. First, favourites underperform in Origin: Queensland's defeat as warm favourites in Game Three continues a run of series where the shorter-priced side has failed to deliver. Second, the decider is the most volatile market of all — three-game series that reach 1–1 are genuinely coin flips regardless of venue, and the market consistently overweights home advantage. Third, player markets on the halves are where sharp money lives: halfbacks and five-eighths touch the ball more than anyone, and their performance swings series outcomes.
Apply those lessons next year: wait for the series to develop before committing serious money, treat Game Three as a new market rather than an extension of Game Two, and look for value on the underdog's spine players in try-scorer and man-of-the-match markets.
Looking Ahead to Origin 2027
The 2027 series will be shaped by the 2026 Rugby League World Cup, which runs from 15 October to 15 November 2026 with the final at Suncorp Stadium — expect representative hangovers and early-season club workloads to influence which players are available for Origin camp. NSW's young spine has another year of development; Queensland will be desperate to bounce back at home. The venues for 2027 had not been confirmed at the time of writing, so check the NRL's official announcement before planning anything.
As always, prices quoted anywhere on this site move constantly — treat them as guides, check live markets, and stake responsibly. Origin is the most passionate betting event on the Australian calendar, and it should be fun first and profitable second.