Last updated: June 2026
How the Brownlow Medal Works
The Brownlow Medal is awarded to the AFL's best and fairest player each season. Umpires vote 3-2-1 after each match for the best players on the ground. The player with the most votes at the end of the home-and-away season wins the medal. Players suspended during the season are ineligible.
2026 Brownlow Medal Favourites
Patrick Cripps (Carlton) — $4.50
Cripps is a proven vote-getter and former winner (2022). His contested ball work catches umpires' eyes. If Carlton are winning games, Cripps polls heavily.
Nick Daicos (Collingwood) — $5.00
Daicos is the most exciting mid in the competition and accumulates votes in bunches. His outside game and goal-kicking ability make him hard to ignore for umpires.
Lachie Neale (Brisbane) — $6.50
The 2020 and 2023 winner. Neale is consistently in the votes and his disposal numbers are elite. Always a threat.
Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) — $8.00
The Bont has finished top five in Brownlow voting four times. He's due for a win and his all-round game polls heavily.
Errol Gulden (Sydney) — $10.00
Gulden's kicking and creativity stand out. If Sydney win enough games, he could be a bolter at double-figure odds.
Past Brownlow Medal Winners
- 2025: Nick Daicos (Collingwood) — 36 votes
- 2024: Zak Butters (Port Adelaide) — 34 votes
- 2023: Lachie Neale (Brisbane) — 36 votes
- 2022: Patrick Cripps (Carlton) — 31 votes
- 2021: Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) — 36 votes
- 2020: Lachie Neale (Brisbane) — 31 votes
- 2019: Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) — 33 votes
Brownlow Betting Strategy
Focus on midfielders: Umpires vote for midfielders at a much higher rate than defenders or forwards. Only one key forward (Dustin Martin in 2017) has won it in the last 15 years.
Team success matters: Players from winning teams poll disproportionately well. Look for midfielders on top-eight sides.
Suspension check: Any suspended player is ineligible regardless of votes. Monitor the tribunal closely.
Round-by-round polling: Track who's getting 3-vote performances. Consistent 2-vote games are just as valuable as occasional 3-vote hauls.
Value Picks for 2026
Sam Walsh (Carlton) — $15: Polls well in wins and Carlton are expected to improve. If Cripps and Walsh split votes, Walsh could outpoll his teammate at much better odds.
Tom Green (GWS) — $21: A pure contested ball winner who catches umpires' eyes. Good value if GWS push for top four.
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How the 2025 Count Rewrote the Market
The 2025 Brownlow Medal was one of the biggest upsets in the award's history. Gold Coast midfielder Matt Rowell won with 39 votes — the second-highest total ever recorded under the modern 3–2–1 voting system, behind only Patrick Cripps' record 45 votes in 2024 — despite starting the count as roughly fifth favourite with bookmakers. Collingwood's Nick Daicos finished second on 32 votes, with Geelong's Bailey Smith third on 29.
Rowell polled in 17 of his 23 games, including eight best-on-grounds, and his win highlighted how unpredictable the count can be. The lesson for punters: midfielders who accumulate consistently and play in wins are over-represented in Brownlow voting, and the market frequently under-prices exactly those players. Value in Brownlow betting often sits with the second or third tier of midfielders, not the headline favourite.
Players to Watch in the 2026 Count
The 2026 count will be held after the home-and-away season, and the usual suspects dominate the early market. Nick Daicos remains a perennial favourite after consecutive top-three finishes, while Matt Rowell will carry the weight of being the reigning medallist — history shows defending the Brownlow is rare, as umpires' attention and taggers both follow. Keep an eye on the mid-season leaderboards published by the AFL and ESPN's predictor, which correctly identified eight of the past 12 winners.
Dark horses to monitor as the season progresses include high-possession midfielders at top-eight clubs — players who poll heavily in wins. Because odds shift dramatically after big individual performances, the smart play is to identify your value picks early in the season, before the market catches up. As always, treat Brownlow betting as entertainment and stake accordingly.
Understanding Umpire Voting Patterns
Umpires award three, two and one votes after every match, and their tendencies are remarkably stable year to year. Inside midfielders dominate because they touch the ball most and umpires reward prolific, clean disposal. Key position players and defenders need truly exceptional games to poll, while small forwards rarely feature unless they kick bags of goals.
Wins matter disproportionately: roughly three-quarters of all Brownlow votes go to players on the winning team. That makes team form almost as important as individual form when building a Brownlow portfolio. A gun midfielder at a team surging up the ladder is worth more than an equally talented player at a bottom-four club, because the winner's votes are spread more thinly.